Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 18:09:59 AWUS01 KWNH 031809 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-040008- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0792 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 208 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 031808Z - 040008Z SUMMARY...Monsoonal convection will be initiating very soon and will become scattered in nature across ares of southern CO down through central and western NM. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible and especially near any arroyos close to thunderstorm activity and over the sensitive burn scar areas. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows CU development across the higher terrain of the Sangre De Cristo Range of southern CO and northern NM, with signs of CI becoming likely within the next hour or so. This is also being supported by a combination of LightningCast data and the Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery. Strong diurnal heating and the evolution of differential heating boundaries will be key factors with the expected development and expansion of scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms today. SBCAPE values across areas of east-central NM are already on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, and there is also presence of weak, but moist upslope flow extending from eastern NM into the adjacent higher terrain of the Sangre De Cristo Range and also the Sacramento Mountains farther south. Areas around the Sacramento Mountains are dealing with some cloudiness that is currently keeping the instability somewhat subdued, but this will help facilitate differential heating boundaries and thus a low-level forcing mechanism/focus for convection to initiate on going through the afternoon hours. PWs are near seasonal norms for this time of the year and are consistent again with a rather typical monsoonal pattern. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will developing and be rather slow-moving given the placement of the deeper layer ridge near the Four Corners region and weak steering currents. However, the convection should again tend to move off the terrain and out into the open desert locations where eventually a combination of greater instability and low-level outflow boundary collisions will act to promote additional convective development heading through the late afternoon time frame. Rainfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected, and some spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals are expected. Some isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible, and especially around any of the area burn scar locations. Arroyo flooding will also be possible near and away from the base of the stronger thunderstorms where the heaviest rains set up. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_eGpL8EYgQrMGtNUPlRpqxTrWapMjdyDNltqdEVgLWDcwrgNUffJFVUvIBxisuf-PC7Q= twHmQvYR5AaFAGMXnjJg7kw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37750459 36840393 35480393 33910373 32730403=20 32210562 32450773 33090887 34230916 35260863=20 35910755 36600659 37730556=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .