Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 17:58:02 AWUS01 KWNH 031757 FFGMPD MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-032356- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0791 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 031756Z - 032356Z Summary...Strengthening thunderstorms were noted along and ahead of a front located across the Piedmont/southern Appalachians recently. As the storms expand in coverage and intensity, flash flood potential is expected to increase. Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm activity was increasing in coverage along and ahead of a front extending from near the WV/VA border (near Petersburg, WV) south-southwestward to just east of Atlanta, GA. Just ahead of this front, a moist/unstable axis was focused from central SC into central NC, where 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.75-2 inch PW values were noted. Additionally, subtle ascent from mid-level shortwave troughs over the Appalachians were migrating eastward atop the warm/moist axis, while appreciable 850mb confluence was noted, further promoting thunderstorm development. These storms were also maturing within an kinematic environment characterized by deep southwesterly flow aloft averaging about 30 knots or so. This flow was parallel to both the front and instability axis, suggesting that as storms continue to mature, areas of localized training can be expected. Spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates were already being observed just south of Greensboro, NC, and a further expansion of these rain rates can be expected especially where storms backbuild, train, and congeal into linear segments through the afternoon. The rainfall is expected to develop atop locally sensitive ground conditions along with susceptible urban areas such as Raleigh and Columbia metros. FFGs in these regions are 1.5 inch/hr range (locally lower west of the I-95 corridor in western North Carolina) and should be readily exceeded at times given the abundantly moist/unstable thermodynamic profiles and favorable kinematic setup for training/backbuilding. The flash flood threat is expected to persists at least through 00Z and should only increase through peak heating hours. It is possible that lingering convection could persist after 00Z, although widespread convective overturning and loss of diurnal heating could mitigate some of the flash flood threat by that time. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8cZ3S2vVQZvgYBUXo_3N5JQd44P_hwrKCXO4TbTWbFbefCNWUAa26i6xMQ1zFdXUJdcL= 7O4RGmPq6gObexf9qBRVKBg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38817839 38697730 37847676 36847656 35677766=20 34937855 34008044 33408173 34358267 34898196=20 35808101 36618069 37847974=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .