Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 14:57:56

AWUS01 KWNH 031457
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-032056-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0789
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and northern West
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031456Z - 032056Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce
occasional instances of 1 inch/hr rain rates across the discussion
area today.  Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Modest surface heating and forcing aloft associated
with an upper wave has supported an uptick in convective activity
from northeastern Ohio (near Canton) eastward to near Bradford,
Pennsylvania.  Slow storm motions (with modest flow aloft beneath
the wave) and 1.5-1.7 inch PW values near the activity was
supporting efficient rain rates (approaching 1 inch/hr via MRMS
estimates) These rain rates were falling shy of FFG thresholds
across the area (generally in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range), suggesting
that only isolated runoff issues are expected in the near term.

Visible satellite imagery depicts breaks in the clouds south of
ongoing convection, indicative of destabilization.  Eventually,
more widespread development of convection will occur with
progression through peak heating hours, with greater opportunities
for local cell mergers and small-scale training to foster locally
enhanced rainfall rates (reaching 1.5 inch/hr at times).  This
will coincide with a somewhat greater opportunity for isolated
instances of flash flooding across the entire discussion area -
especially if the heavier rain rates can materialize in low spots
and/or urban areas.  This increased potential is most likely to
materialize after around 18Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6T3FfYIGL_86MPqwghz7H06jpwqICTpVbscsRagiJ5rkcNqqVynz82OOW79S94i5napL=
SUmm3-by-_nwgDuabfy-dpc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42247918 42237763 41737687 40897687 40017761=20
            39347966 39108076 40068228 41208229 41778071=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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