Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 09:02:08

ACUS48 KWNS 030902
SWOD48
SPC AC 030900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Models suggest that seasonably high moisture content will linger in
a plume along/east of a weak mid-level trough/shear axis, offshore
of the northern Atlantic coast into the southern Atlantic coast
vicinity, as northerly flow leads to continued general drying
elsewhere to the east of the Rockies.  It appears possible that a
lingering tropical cyclone, initially centered near/offshore of the
southern Atlantic coast at the outset of the period, remains the
primary potential focus for severe weather, and even this may remain
rather limited.  Within weak steering flow, the forecast motion of
this system remains somewhat uncertain.  Guidance suggests that a
continuing tropical storm may shift back inland across the Carolinas
by Wednesday or Thursday, before tending to migrate
north-northeastward.  While it is possible that this may be
accompanied by at least some continuing tornado potential, this risk
seems likely to remain generally low.  Severe probabilities are
being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period.

...Kerr.. 08/03/2024

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