Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 07:19:07 ACUS03 KWNS 030719 SWODY3 SPC AC 030718 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN MAINE...MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of the southern Atlantic coast, and corridors across New England into southern portions of the Great Lakes region. ....Synopsis... Within the amplified flow across the northern mid-latitudes, the center of an enlarging high may shift slowly eastward into the Canadian Northwest Territories, while the downstream low progresses similarly across northern Quebec during this period. To the southwest through south of this low, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario into the St. Lawrence Valley, before turning eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, it appears that a surface frontal zone will advance south/southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley and upper Great Lakes region, accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow and shear across southern portions of the Great Lakes into New England Monday through Monday night. The western flank of this front may advance more rapidly southward into and through the central Great Plains, though it appears this will occur beneath a prominent mid-level ridge building along an axis from the southern Great Basin through lower Mississippi Valley. Between this ridge and a downstream ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, it appears that a tropical storm may slowly progress inland across northeastern Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia by late Monday night. ....South Atlantic Coast vicinity... Forcing for ascent, low-level shear, and boundary-layer buoyancy may remain sufficient to support a continuing risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes in the northeast/right front quadrant of the slow moving tropical cyclone. This may be in the process of overspreading northeastern Florida early Monday, perhaps into parts of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina, before mostly shifting offshore by Monday night. ....New England through the southern Great Lakes... Enough variability exists within the model output to preclude the introduction of more than marginal risk severe probabilities at the present time. However, it appears that the strengthening shear may coincide with sufficient destabilization along the frontal zone to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development Monday into Monday evening. This may include the evolution of a few small clusters, which may become capable of producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Kerr.. 08/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .