Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 02:18:18

AWUS01 KWNH 030218
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-030615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0788
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast MD...Northern DE...Southeast
PA...Southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030215Z - 030615Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the central
Mid-Atlantic region, including the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to
Philadelphia. Additional areas of urban flash flooding are likely
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery in conjunction with GOES-E
IR satellite imagery shows a west-southwest to east-northeast band
of very heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of
central to northeast MD through northern DE, far southeast PA and
adjacent areas of southern NJ. This includes the Baltimore and
Philadelphia metropolitan areas.

Some cloud-top cooling has been noted over the last hour, and this
suggests at least a continuation of the current activity in the
short-term as convection tends to locally train over the same
area. The convection is focused near and a bit north of a
slow-moving, but well-defined outflow boundary. Supporting the
convective sustenance is also proximity of a moderately unstable
boundary layer with MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg across much
of northeast MD, northern DE and into adjacent areas of southern
NJ in close proximity to the outflow boundary.

Rainfall rates have recently been peaking as high as 2 to 3
inches/hour with the stronger storms near Baltimore, and with some
additional concerns for cell-training, it is possible that
additional isolated totals could reach 3 to 4 inches.

Additional areas of urban flash flooding are likely over the next
few hours involving the I-95 corridor from Baltimore to
Philadelphia, including some of the adjacent suburbs as these
storms continue to persist. However, with the waning instability
in the boundary layer, the convection should begin to gradually
weaken after midnight.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-oXZ1UpAfNLi1FBvgHPSMoITKZguxnswdOYHRAer1Apm5kw6r7WNtYIaa2NuEeiEKd6-=
N7RD38Z2WjOesnpR6pioyz4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40177464 40107407 39807420 39327524 39097597=20
            39017664 39077728 39317770 39537764 39647730=20
            39747669 39867603 40027528=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.