Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 03 2024 00:55:47

AWUS01 KWNH 030055
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0787
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of AZ and NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030053Z - 030500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue into the evening hours. Some additional
instances of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered clusters of cold-topped convection still percolating
over areas of AZ and NM with still some relative focus near some
of the higher terrain. There are still some pockets of SBCAPE
values on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and with colliding
outflow boundaries still occurring, the ongoing pockets of
convection that are occurring should still have some persistence
over the next few hours.

Overall, the steering flow is rather weak, and there will continue
to be some localized concerns for excessive rainfall totals where
some of the cells become locally concentrated or focused. Rainfall
rates should still be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some additional totals of 2 to 3 inches
may be possible.

Additional isolated instances of flash flooding will continue to
be possible heading into this evening, and especially if any
additional rains impact the more sensitive burn scar locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7mzFfo19NzMnAOMQqmsxvOqD2397Ud8Y_E6cTEZvbVANvUyXEO5kQaY7PytgG2gQgtMX=
80KneMpVMllgWgA9a2IRpDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36931180 36841088 36560959 36520847 36430669=20
            35980496 35490385 34760333 34100338 33490381=20
            33040513 32920631 32620738 32260806 31350989=20
            31671204 32691271 33891306 35271366 36171350=20
            36711277=20

=3D =3D =3D
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