Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 23:29:48

AWUS01 KWNH 022329
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-030228-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0786
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...Far Northern VA...Central to Northeast MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022328Z - 030228Z

SUMMARY...A few instances of mainly urban flash flooding may be
possible over the next few hours from locally training bands of
heavy showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Early-evening visible satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar shows multiple outflow boundaries facilitating a
general west to east axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
across portions of far northern VA through central and northern
MD, including the greater Baltimore metropolitan area.

Given the locally focused convergence along these outflow
boundaries and proximity of strong instability near the Chesapeake
Bay with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, the convection should
persist for at least the next 2 to 3 hours.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with these
storms going through mid-evening given the high PW environment and
level of instability that is focused across the region. There are
at least some localized training concerns that may persist in the
short-term, and this will pose at least some concerns for flash
flooding and especially within the urban corridors near I-95 and
Baltimore in particular.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-Fg2HNMN1NjHIcT0hTLSZcH7VVyS6VJGgQ-l7Div73iYN9-UkwCqVVvexMnLv_RkkJ8X=
JRcFYas1CoxI9zC4tEdsncM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39717670 39657585 39387577 39077596 39007636=20
            38977705 39107765 39387782 39577768 39657715=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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