Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 22:57:18

AWUS01 KWNH 022257
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-030355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0785
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast VA...Central and
Northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022255Z - 030355Z

SUMMARY...A couple of bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
occasionally train over the same area over the next few hours.
This coupled with the potential for a few cell-mergers may result
in a few instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
couple of broken bands of cold-topped convection advancing
gradually off to the east across central and northern NC and
through south-central VA. The activity has become at least loosely
organized over the last 1 to 2 hours with cooling cloud tops noted
and with a downstream environment that is quite unstable. This is
especially the case across south-central to southeast VA and
northeast NC where MLCAPE values are locally on the order of 2500
to 3500 J/kg.

Despite weak shear profiles, the high degree of late-day
instability downstream suggests that the current activity should
be able to sustain itself as it advances off to the east over the
next few hours. A couple of smaller-scale clusters of convection
along the VA/NC border that are lifting northeastward will likely
merge in with the more organized convection just to the north and
west.

A very moist environment is in place with PWs of locally 2.0 to
2.25 inches. This coupled with the instability will favor some of
the stronger convective cells producing rainfall rates of as much
as 1.5 inches in 30 minutes, and with some localized episodic
instances of cell-training and cell-mergers, some localized storm
total amounts over the next few hours may reach 2 to 4 inches.
This may cause some exceedances of the 3-hour FFG values.

A few instances of flash flooding may be possible as a result, and
this will especially be the case if any of these rains manage to
make it into the more urbanized locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-DCyaYM46Q-sBmJMeH-QVLiXrEiiYswymSsvZchdyZS9k2WuYI-mgiQG9cOozoi6qFfe=
CWs13yUJVnOK6wuXmgJVOwo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37517670 37417613 36997577 36467615 35947766=20
            35617889 35697971 36267961 36877872 37357747=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.