Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 18:28:42 AWUS01 KWNH 021828 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-030027- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0781 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 228 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern AZ...Much of NM...Far Southern CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 021827Z - 030027Z SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected today. Given locally heavy rainfall rates, isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. This will include notable concerns once again for the area dry washes and especially some of the very sensitive burn scar locations. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery in conjunction with the latest AI-driven LightningCast output indicates CI is imminent across portions of the Sangre De Cristo Range of southern CO and north-central NM, and is likely to occur soon over areas of the Sacramento Mountains farther south over south-central NM. SBCAPE values have risen to 1000 to 2000 J/kg across northeast NM in close proximity to the higher terrain, and there is some weak low-level upslope flow which coupled with localized differential heating boundaries should foster the development and expansion of scattered areas of convection over the next several hours. Meanwhile, locally even higher levels of instability are noted across areas of central and eastern AZ, with SBCAPE values up to near 2500 J/kg, and convection here will likely initiate within the next couple of hours as well over some of the higher terrain before then edging off into the open desert locations. The steering flow across the region is quite weak, and the cells should be rather slow-moving and capable of producing locally excessive rainfall totals. The PW environment is seasonably moist for this time of the year and consistent with a typical monsoon regime. Given the available moisture and instability, plus added influence from terrain, some rainfall rates may reach 1.5" to 2"/hour with the stronger storms as the convection evolves and locally expands in coverage heading through the afternoon hours. By late afternoon, some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible. Multiple very sensitive burn areas including the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon scar in the Sangre De Cristo Range, and the Blue-2, South Fork, Salt, and McBride burn scar complex in the Sacramento Mountains will be at risk of locally significant impacts should these heavier showers and thunderstorms impact these locations which will include flash flooding and debris flow concerns. More regionally, there will also be a threat for arroyo/dry wash flooding including for areas well away from where the heaviest rains occur. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-DU3HJieg4PAQ7FGgwzH6dsmGbgIGwe9EHTUy8jjE6ag24NUrMSX_IUQNslK9XxH0TkH= ZTYCKGoWUrzmGisa2GcAnPM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38140548 37990474 36920407 35690376 34510384=20 33500416 32650473 32310544 32440598 33200634=20 33170703 32490781 31350989 31671204 33331289=20 34931300 35611247 35781147 35871028 36070890=20 36610787 37240712 37860622=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .