Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 18:24:14

AWUS01 KWNH 021824
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-030022-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0782
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Areas affected...eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky,
southern/southwestern Virginia, much of North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021822Z - 030022Z

Summary...Clusters of thunderstorms will continue migrating
eastward across the discussion area while moving into a gradually
more moist airmass across central North Carolina and vicinity.=20
Flash flooding is possible in this regime.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms along the southern/central
Appalachians are being forced by mid-level thermal/shortwave
trough over eastern Kentucky.  These storms were located in a
warming/destabilizing airmass characterized by 1.5 inch PW values
(lowest along the central Appalachians) and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Additionally, storms have been embedded in 30 kt
west-southwesterly flow aloft, allowing for appreciable movement
and propagation that has largely limited rain rates.  Only in
localized spots of training/backbuilding have 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates have materialized.  Cells across the Appalachians are
expected to move toward a gradually more moist airmass downstream
across central North Carolina and Virginia, with PWs nearing 2
inches and fostering somewhat higher potential for high rain rates
especially near training/repeating cells.  With ~2 inch/hr FFW
thresholds located across much of North Carolina (locally lower),
flash flood potential should increase downstream of ongoing
activity over the next 3-6 hours.

An additional developing cluster of storms were developing in a
similar regime across southeastern Kentucky.  Recent MRMS data
suggests spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates with this activity, but
with prior rainfall across that area and adjacent areas of
Tennessee, FFGs are hovering near ~1 inch/hr.  Flash flood
potential is a bit greater in these areas given more sensitive
ground conditions and increasing thunderstorm potential through
the afternoon.

In summary, areas of convective clusters should migrate eastward
across the discussion area through the next 6 hours, with areas of
flash flooding expected especially where local training can
materialize.=20

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7tiDDfcnV1FCd9R3RUlge4DkWnBKjTXBXxMVFcM3JHgEPw7ECiu-FCFhofEWPdIDFU-s=
a7dgYSWbNQuAE05_2nlfXvM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37537883 36797819 35937837 35177899 34898015=20
            35148168 35028357 35148462 36268493 37328415=20
            37468348 37448208 37428008=20

=3D =3D =3D
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