Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 16:07:00 ACUS01 KWNS 021606 SWODY1 SPC AC 021605 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ....SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ....Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ....CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ....Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .