Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 02 2024 01:02:26 ACUS01 KWNS 020102 SWODY1 SPC AC 020100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ....Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ....Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ....Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Broyles.. 08/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .