Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 19:56:55 AWUS01 KWNH 011956 FFGMPD KYZ000-INZ000-020155- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0776 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Southern Indiana into Kentucky Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011955Z - 020155Z Summary...Isolated to scattered flash flooding is expected over portions of southern Indiana into Kentucky this afternoon into the evening hours. Discussion...A relatively small convective complex rapidly developed over the past 3 hours across portions of IL and IN...although the quick forward progression has generally limited the flash flood risk. The downstream environment is quite favorable for convection, with MLCAPE upwards of 3000 j/kg and PWs near 2". Recent radar imagery is finally beginning to show some convective development downstream of the MCS, which will likely locally increase the flash flood risk over the next few hours across portions of southern IN into KY. The convective line will likely stay quick moving, however we should see an uptick in cells merging into the line given the recent increase in downstream development. Where these cell mergers occur, some instances of flash flooding can be expected. We are also seeing some signs of brief training along the southern extent of the MCS, and this tendency may continue going forward as well. The 18z HRRR has an okay handle on the expected evolution going forward, although it is probably under doing the downstream development to some extent. Thus while the HRRR is showing totals peaking around 2", would expect the occasional cell mergers and brief training on the southern extent of the line will result in some areas exceeding 3" of rainfall over the next several hours. Recent rainfall has resulted in well above average soil saturation levels for portions of far southern IN into KY, which should result in increased runoff and an isolated to scattered flash flood risk over the next several hours as this convection moves off to the southeast. Chenard ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62ZEWHBx5wlXibYLlJjn8B_J4pJA6D9yEnqJzN5KfKSF7DctoYygTX1nBQOo9lE9hprD= iFtmVhrty--QhwSpoZ1y8lw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH... ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39128644 38828554 38638521 38048444 37158423=20 36978452 36868517 36878578 37078767 37288795=20 37658809 38068746 38348713 38878688=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .