Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 17:30:54 ACUS02 KWNS 011730 SWODY2 SPC AC 011729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ....Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ....Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ....Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ....MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ...Jewell.. 08/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .