Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 08:49:54

ACUS48 KWNS 010849
SWOD48
SPC AC 010848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge
centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft
from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be
possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant
moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear
which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of
instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental
airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly
flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any
mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow
will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved
at this range.

In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina
coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a
tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center,
could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early
next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some
severe-weather threat may materialize.

...Bentley.. 08/01/2024

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