Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 07:31:17 ACUS03 KWNS 010731 SWODY3 SPC AC 010730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ....Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ....Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ...Bentley.. 08/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .