Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 01:08:08

AWUS01 KWNH 010108
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0773
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southern MN...Southwest
WI...Northern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010105Z - 010700Z

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of intense thunderstorms increasing in
coverage through the late evening and early overnight hours may
lead to some instances of flash flooding, especially across areas
where storms convectively train and where rainfall rates exceed 1
inch/30 minutes.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating two separate
MCS clusters across the outlook area, with robust convection near
the SD/MN line, and additional strong convection south of the Twin
Cities.  These two clusters are likely to merge and form a single
larger MCS over the next several hours, with multiple back
building cells expected.=20

An outflow boundary currently situated across southern Minnesota
is intercepting a southerly flow of 15-25 mph at 850 mb.  The
latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts PWs on the order of 1.5 to 1.8
inches, in combination with impressive instability given mixed
layer CAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg south of the outflow boundary.=20
Additionally, lift is also being aided by modest left exit region
dynamics from a 250 mb jet max overhead, along with outflow
boundaries from earlier storms.=20

The latest CAM guidance depicts a corridor of 1-3 inch rainfall
totals across much of the region, with isolated 4 inch maxima
possible.  The HRRR and ARW appeared to depict things best with
the highest QPF centered over southern Minnesota, whereas the NAM
conest and FV3 are probably too far north with their QPF.
Therefore, some instances of flash flooding will be possible
through 2 am local time.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9WhSuU3SmcH90A_BhVLn49Jw0nb8me7wc2oBrvd8vMpFqcd1i-__IW6BDNZl2o9ScKYF=
cem0YIhco_tZOB3GUmb3b9c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...FSD...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45769449 45429304 44859195 44119016 43429020=20
            42799088 42769237 42839354 42959466 42879721=20
            43139794 43579816 44499784 45329720 45709609=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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