Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 01 2024 01:02:14 ACUS01 KWNS 010102 SWODY1 SPC AC 010100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. ....Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest... Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90 mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN, and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth. Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface winds are in place. The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind. A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any intense bowing segments tonight. ....Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians... A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind. Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with some damaging-wind potential. ....Southwest AZ vicinity... High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes overnight. ...Dean.. 08/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .