Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 23:46:39

AWUS01 KWNH 312346
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0772
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Southern AZ...Southeast CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312344Z - 010400Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms across southern Arizona will
continue to produce locally heavy downpours that could result in
some instances of flooding through 4Z.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES 16 infrared
satellite imagery continue to indicate a complex of slow moving
storms across the southern Arizona deserts, mainly south of the
Interstate 8 corridor.  There is a 500 mb vortmax that is passing
through the region, and this will help to sustain this activity
through the next several hours as it tracks closer to the Colorado
River.  There is still ample CAPE and anomalous PWs across this
region with deep monsoonal moisture in place, supporting the
potential for storms with locally high rainfall rates exceeding an
inch per hour.  The latest CAM guidance suite still has some
patchy 1-2 inch rainfall maxima through about 4Z, after which the
convection should start to wane with loss of daytime heating.  As
a result, some instances of flooding will be possible with the
strongest and most persistent convection.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4_KxbSICQWwtBKCOr_x3HMpU9SjomKQM8QTQfXaNmb7Y4NvTDl2OEov5qe6C6pr_ou7o=
24OzjD9CldytvUW7K4nvFpY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34161427 33971332 33711188 33451108 33091042=20
            32461014 31751021 31301045 31321115 31821281=20
            32151390 32401450 32761523 33831506=20

=3D =3D =3D
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