Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 22:41:38

AWUS01 KWNH 312241
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0771
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
640 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NY...Central VT...Central NH...Western
ME

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312239Z - 010200Z

Summary...Numerous showers and some thunderstorms are likely to
continue across northern New England through about 10 pm local
time.  Given the multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, combined with
very wet antecedent conditions in some areas, flash flooding
remains a possibility with the heaviest convection.

Discussion...Regional radars indicate convection has been slow to
diminish early this evening, with numerous slow moving heavy
showers with rainfall rates still approaching an inch per hour.
The overall atmospheric environment remains conducive for
additional heavy rainfall over the next few hours, with a steady
low level southwesterly inflow advecting anomalous PWs near or
slightly above 2 inches across the region.  Large scale ascent is
also being provided by an incoming 850-500 mb shortwave trough to
the northwest.  There should be a gradual weakening trend with
loss of daytime heating later this evening.

The latest CAM guidance suite still indicates the potential for
some additional 1-2 inch totals across the region over the next
several hours, and this looks reasonable based on ongoing radar
trends.  This could easily exceed flash flood guidance across
areas that have been hammered by recent downpours.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7k0vczXt0ILGAp3HkfIYdvCGN7oPIU1UIlqEL0pjcEoV_1Zekk3pZEHTQBjwWZu8ShSq=
LRwZNfsxDds75z0XiF8O8AU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...BUF...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47506923 47406872 46656894 45646937 44616991=20
            43967024 43517076 43267134 43217217 43167308=20
            43527351 43977525 44917526 45037381 45087289=20
            45107196 45217141 45487089 45877050 46267036=20
            46717013 47116967=20

=3D =3D =3D
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