Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1774
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 22:33:11

ACUS11 KWNS 312233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312232=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312232Z - 010000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be capable of
producing locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and marginally
severe hail (around 1 inch) through around 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately
ahead of a lee trough/dryline feature -- where temperatures have
warmed into the lower 100s F amid lower 60s dewpoints. Associated
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate surface-based instability
will support locally severe downbursts (55-65 mph) and perhaps an
instance or two of hail around 1 inch. Given around 25 kt of
deep-layer shear (per AMA VWP and latest mesoanalysis), storm
longevity should be limited, and the overall severe threat should
remain fairly isolated.

...Weinman/Smith.. 07/31/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-71IxXbfrcWW5LQJ1U7mmIMlUec_lsoYquXBA64sV5JdUKixJ11qK78KZ14zES4MzLSE5e9DJ=
PyhWD_GcoqW98dBz0M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35140292 35440248 36120178 36770096 36800055 36570020
            36110032 35710071 34350253 34240288 34430326 34780325
            35140292=20


=3D =3D =3D
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