Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 18:27:32

AWUS01 KWNH 311827
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0769
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...Eastern ND...Northeast SD...Central MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311825Z - 010000Z

SUMMARY...A slow moving line of intense convection from an MCS
over the Red River Valley will likely have rainfall rates
exceeding 1 inch/30 minutes as it passes through, which may lead
to some instances of flooding through 7 pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a healthy MCS
with robust convection near the ND/MN line, and some additional
convection trying to develop behind it across portions of
northeast SD.  Some bookend vortices within the main convective
line may result in some instances of convective training that
could lead to some 2-3+ inch rainfall totals over a 2-hour time
period.  There is good overall agreement in the CAM guidance suite
for this scenario, with patchy QPF maxima of 2-4 inches through 7
pm local time.

Meteorological parameters are conducive for this event to continue
into the afternoon hours.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts PWs
on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches, in combination with impressive
instability given mixed layer CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg ahead of an
incoming surface cold front.  Additionally, lift is also being
aided by modest right entrance region dynamics from a 250 mb jet
max over southwest Ontario, and a convergent 850 mb flow just
south of the main convective complex, along with outflow
boundaries from earlier storms.  Therefore, some instances of
flash flooding will be possible.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7if-IaLJkD3nmcdxxw_pwPrYarGtjEir2nc0AeQRgIIXF3H76FmYyhHUyzHKd3w8wBCh=
XZmag8z-K-n8JcPjRW_GpSg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   48159570 48119495 47899362 47479258 46779237=20
            45789290 44829405 44839674 45079837 45639889=20
            46419775 47349730 47809702 48069654=20

=3D =3D =3D
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