Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 17:38:41 ACUS02 KWNS 311738 SWODY2 SPC AC 311737 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AREA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ....Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave cresting the central and southern U.S. ridge, moving eastward across the Upper Midwest early, will turn a bit more southeastward with time -- progressing across the southern Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area through Thursday and into Friday morning. At the surface, this trough will be reflected by a weak area of low pressure that should settle southeastward across the Ohio Valley through the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms -- including locally severe storms -- are expected across this region. ....Midwest/Ohio Valley area... Ongoing/early-period convection -- and possibly ongoing severe risk -- is expected across the Illinois vicinity early Thursday. This convection should gradually diminish/weaken through the day as it continues advancing east-southeastward. In its wake, the degree of destabilization potential remains somewhat in question due to the worked-over airmass and lingering cloudiness, but current expectations are that moderate destabilization should commence, peaking in the afternoon at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. As the upper system moves southeastward, redevelopment of storms -- likely focused near remnant convective boundaries -- is expected. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) westerlies at mid levels on the southern fringe of the upper system, shear will support organized convection -- with initial/potential supercells likely to grow upscale while shifting generally eastward across the Ohio Valley area through the evening. Along with potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk once again. At this time, uncertainty due to early/ongoing convection and its associated threats on the airmass preclude introduction of higher probabilities. Greater risk may be included in future outlooks once the early-day convective evolution becomes more clear in later outlooks. ....Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon as a moist (70s dewpoints) airmass east of the highest terrain heats/destabilizes through the day. Though low-level flow will remain weak, and a general lack of large-scale ascent aloft, mid-level northwesterlies at 25 to 30 kt will likely support a few stronger storms through the afternoon/early evening, capable of producing locally damaging winds and hail. ...Goss.. 07/31/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .