Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1759
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 31 2024 04:17:58

ACUS11 KWNS 310417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310417=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-310615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 310417Z - 310615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation may occur in the 04-07z period
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.  If this scenario occurs,
parameters would suggest a risk of large hail and damaging winds.  A
severe thunderstorm watch could be needed.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows very moist low-level
conditions in place across eastern NE/western IA, with dewpoints in
the low-mid 70s.  This, combined with very steep mid-level lapse
rates are yielding large CAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg.  Low-level
convergence is weak, but a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet
will focus warm advection and lift across the region, likely aiding
in the development of scattered thunderstorms.  00z CAM guidance
varies on placement and timing of this development, but recent IR
images indicate patches of CU/TCU in the region that could mature
into thunderstorms within the next few hours.  Sufficient westerly
flow aloft will help to organize storms into rotating/bowing
structures.  If this scenario unfolds, a severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed.

...Hart.. 07/31/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Kt_LUp2v7Rb_MOtYcspWLL0N_0Zy6niX-PQUsSaoQnVXrF2oIqVUuN1b80qGIXmlvZYzv_ig=
eTx_86FKeT3TUoBlxQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   42709800 42419530 41879309 40989306 40819422 41189667
            41729808 42219835 42709800=20


=3D =3D =3D
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