Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 30 2024 23:51:57

ACUS11 KWNS 302351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302351=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-310115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into
far southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302351Z - 310115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled
out across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into far southwest KS
into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along/immediately
ahead of a lee trough/dryline extending across the TX/OK Panhandles
into far southwest KS. Theses storms are in an environment
characterized by surface temperatures in the low 100s F and
dewpoints in the lower 60s. While vertical winds shear is not
particularly strong (around 20-25 kt effective shear), the
well-mixed boundary layer and somewhat focused mesoscale ascent
could support an isolated strong/severe wind gust and perhaps
marginally severe hail with any longer-lived storms. The risk
appears too localized for a watch consideration.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/30/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!96t636cK5mh79fNqpEtakzKHlTDEFT18UnzKvBszfce2k2dZNB6S70eJnmB47Ki7mJYX6WNmd=
ZosI1q47nkvd6IZrIY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36430237 37090186 37420129 37730048 37709989 37529960
            37049965 36660049 36280107 35850158 35700198 35730227
            35920253 36140248 36430237=20


=3D =3D =3D
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