Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 30 2024 23:37:48

AWUS01 KWNH 302337
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-310500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0762
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IN...Western
KY...Southeast MO...Central TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302336Z - 310500Z

Summary...Showers and storms increasing in coverage this evening
in association with an MCS may result in some additional instances
of flash flooding, mainly where storms train and also across areas
that have picked up heavy rain earlier today.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES 16 infrared
satellite imagery indicate a developing MCS across southern
Illinois and into adjacent portions of southern Indiana and
eastern Missouri, with a slow overall movement towards the
southeast.  Parts of this region have already received over 2
inches of rain over the past 24 hours, and this additional
rainfall on saturated soils will increase the potential for flash
flooding.=20

The overall atmospheric set-up remains favorable for training
convection.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts anomalous PWs on
the order of 2.0-2.3 inches, mixed layer CAPE approaching 3500
J/kg, and modest convergence of 850 mb flow across the region.=20
Outflow boundaries from the previous MCS that passed through will
also serve as lifting mechanisms in this very unstable environment.

The CAM guidance suite varies in its overall depiction of the MCS
and its evolution/track, but it appears the ARW and the WRF have a
decent overall solution, and the HRRR also shows this but probably
underdone some with QPF totals. The potential exists for localized
2-3 inch rainfall amounts through 5Z, with much of this likely to
fall within a two hour time period for any given location.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6KsetvWKrU-HTPiuEnbTDTBztgJhqV9SfkhOBmfsLsVOCuc6cO8KyV_JjPwub0bHQLJT=
CwNnLgdWCZaGVZPlC1Smqwk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38718742 38698662 38168546 37158460 36188465=20
            35508631 36258809 36488905 36989055 37659090=20
            37958975 38468856=20

=3D =3D =3D
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