Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 30 2024 20:32:15

AWUS01 KWNH 302032
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0760
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Areas affected...Southern IA...Northeast MO...West Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302030Z - 310200Z

Summary...Showers and storms increasing in coverage this afternoon
and into the early evening hours may result in some instances of
flooding, mainly where storms train and also across areas that
have picked up heavy rain earlier today.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES 16 infrared
satellite imagery indicate a growing complex of training storms
situated across south-central Iowa, producing 1-2 inch per hour
rainfall rates.  Parts of this region have already received over
1.5 inches since daybreak from earlier convection, and this
additional rainfall on saturated soils will increase the potential
for flash flooding.  A second area of concern exists across east
central Missouri where another complex of storms with multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall has recently developed.

The latest CAM guidance suite appears to be underdone with
forecast QPF across the region when compared to ongoing radar
trends, including the HRRR which is not handling this complex of
storms well at all.  The potential exists for localized 2-3 inch
rainfall totals through 9 pm local time, with much of this likely
to fall within a 90-minute time period for any given location.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_6FtsTkawWu6kZNiT5p4GgJqQwywekq7JNdmJvMH7Z8uCk9c74gy_R-r_VRdYMfHIa4u=
289ZD7H2nLc3_96K84HhpVY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41919325 41709271 41259139 40709028 40078897=20
            39418842 38368855 37568924 37799084 38279243=20
            38969313 39519302 40209251 40969329 41359398=20
            41579401 41899387=20

=3D =3D =3D
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