Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 30 2024 07:20:13 ACUS03 KWNS 300720 SWODY3 SPC AC 300719 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. ....Synopsis... A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough will be located near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning and traverse to the southern Great Lakes by early Friday morning. This trough will sharpen/amplify somewhat as it advances southeast. A weak surface low will likely accompany this trough, but the exact location of this surface feature remains unclear due to subtle differences in the forecast 500mb pattern. ....Midwest into the Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing in the Midwest/Upper Midwest vicinity on Thursday morning. The evolution/maintenance of this MCS remains unclear and will depend on the exact location of surface features/moisture and the evolution of the mid-level trough. Nonetheless, confidence is high that a very moist low-level airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will be present across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes on Thursday. This will result in a reservoir of strong instability. In addition, while the exact evolution of the upper pattern remains unclear, the more broad scenario suggests a somewhat sharp/amplifying mid-level trough approaching this unstable airmass. As this occurs, a substantial overlap in moderate/strong instability, moderate shear, and ample forcing is anticipated from central Illinois to southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Therefore, while details still remain uncertain, evidence in some severe weather threat during the convective period is high enough to support a Slight Risk. ....Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... Scattered thunderstorms are possible within weak lee troughing east of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse rates will only be around 6 C/km which is the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, the moist airmass will result in moderate instability amid effective shear around 25 to 30 knots. This may be sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms from the Carolinas to the Delmarva. ...Bentley.. 07/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .