Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 29 2024 20:38:39

ACUS11 KWNS 292038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292038=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...far southeastern Montana eastward to the central
Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 292038Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is occurring from far
southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should
increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2
hours.  WW issuance may be needed in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone
thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and
TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern
North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area.  The convection
is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North
Dakota/South Dakota border.

Storm development -- though overall coverage appears likely to
remain widely scattered -- is expected to increase over the next 1
to 2 hours.  Though low-level flow remains weak across the area,
moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for
organized/rotating updrafts.  Presuming sufficient storm coverage
evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells
will likely warrant WW issuance -- perhaps within the next hour or
so.

...Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7bD3xR1YTbB4lVTm_DxjbCXA4jImTMsMWEWrUAQ-QCwgpk0qqWK3ClTMiiM8aiuzgpkyerx2k=
70Z6Mee7dUpUNMgokQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950
            43890141 44260364=20


=3D =3D =3D
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