Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 29 2024 07:34:32 ACUS03 KWNS 290734 SWODY3 SPC AC 290733 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ....Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ....Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ....Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ...Bentley.. 07/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .