Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 29 2024 06:01:01 ACUS01 KWNS 290600 SWODY1 SPC AC 290559 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the day. ....Northern/central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... A broad upper trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will again be in place across parts of the northern Rockies into the central/northern Plains today. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska. As MLCINH decreases through the afternoon, most guidance suggests at least widely scattered storm development near a surface trough from the western Dakotas into northwest NE. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support some threat for supercells, with an attendant threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. With time, evolution into one or more outflow driven clusters will be possible, with an increasing threat of damaging/severe gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph). Longevity for any of these potential clusters into late tonight is uncertain, but some threat for damaging/locally severe gusts could spread into parts of IA and southern MN before a more definitive weakening trend occurs. ....Parts of the OH/MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast... An MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far eastern MO into IL. While the organization and severity of this system during the morning is uncertain, at least isolated damaging gusts could spread southeastward into parts of the OH/TN Valley through midday. In the wake of morning convection, moderate westerly low-level flow will help to modify the remnant outflow, with redevelopment possible by late afternoon into the evening within a warm-advection regime. Most guidance suggests a tendency toward clustering and possible MCS redevelopment by early evening, with a renewed threat for damaging wind. A couple supercells could also evolve within the modifying outflow regime, with an attendant threat for isolated hail and a tornado or two. A Slight Risk has been added from southern IL/IN into central KY, where confidence is currently greatest in some severe threat from both the morning convection and later redevelopment. Some adjustments will likely be needed based on the evolution of early-day convection. Farther southeast, some threat for a few strong storms with isolated damaging-wind potential appears evident from the TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas, within a modest northwesterly flow regime. ....Northern Mid Atlantic vicinity... As a midlevel cyclone moves northward across New England through the day today, strengthening northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread parts of the Mid Atlantic. A few strong storms could develop within this regime during the afternoon, with moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 30-35 kt supporting some potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Dean/Weinman.. 07/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .