Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 29 2024 01:02:33 ACUS01 KWNS 290102 SWODY1 SPC AC 290100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats. ....Parts of SD/NE/KS... Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and localized severe gusts. It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet displaced well to the southeast). Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and strong to severe gusts. ....IA/MO... A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest, there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging gusts. ....MN... A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later tonight. ...Dean.. 07/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .