Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 28 2024 18:42:34

AWUS01 KWNH 281842
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-290040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0750
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeast and south-central
AZ...southwest and south-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281840Z - 290040Z

Summary...Localized instances of flash flooding possible with
significant short term rainfall accumulations (as much as 1" in as
little as 15-min with 2-3" localized totals).

Discussion...Monsoonal convection is beginning to fire across
portions of the Southwest (southwest and south-central NM into
southeast and south-central AZ), primarily in the vicinity of
higher terrain (including the Mogollon Mountains/Rim, the
Sacramento Mountains, and the Huachuca Mountains). The mesoscale
environment is characterized by SB CAPE of 500-3500 J/kg (lowest
over the Mogollon Rim/Mountains and the Sacramento Mountains),
precipitable water values of 0.9-1.6 inches (near the daily mean
and 75th percentile, per EPZ and TUS sounding climatology), and
limited effective bulk shear of ~15 kts. While there is a distinct
lack of forcing, the parameter space is sufficient continued
convection initiation and propagation, and weak deep layer
steering flow (5-10 kts) will result in significant short term
accumulations (with up to 1" in as little as 15-min, and HREF
40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3-hr, 2" exceedance of
10-30%). Localized instances of flash flooding are possible, and
concerns are greatest for the most at-risk terrain, including burn
scars, hydrophobic urbanized terrain, and normally dry washes.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5VmaabHJMyE5zRb7b-inIej-ONDyLjSwzMBBdQnylGgLw1K7r7tZqxpjWn5R74Ud6qO8=
O_ck07JqmqSmL2oKjxGqzbQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34630963 34620858 34390770 34340763 34140728=20
            33700650 33580595 33670554 33300527 32590540=20
            32570591 33120599 32930658 32880750 32430764=20
            32220789 31100810 31020997 31271219 31851299=20
            32971279 33441176 33721035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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