Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 28 2024 09:02:25

ACUS48 KWNS 280902
SWOD48
SPC AC 280900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on
Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe
weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the
weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on
the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe
weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an
area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over
the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should
result in less instability than early this week.

....D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest...
Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge
breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact
the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir
of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the
Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the
region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather
is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need
for severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Bentley.. 07/28/2024

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