Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 28 2024 08:40:59

AWUS01 KWNH 280840
FFGMPD
TXZ000-281400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0746
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Areas affected...Middle Texas Coastal Plain...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280840Z - 281400Z

SUMMARY...Saturated coastal zone and another round of highly
efficient early morning tropical showers pose likely spots of
rapid inundation/flash flooding again this morning.

DISCUSSION...This morning's orientation at the base of SW to NE
mid-level trough continues to remain favorable for morning surge
of western Gulf low level jet to ascend over weak surface ridging
from Matagorda Bay east to provide solid surface to 850mb
convergence to break out scattered shallow topped tropical showers
once again.   However, this morning LPW from CIRA shows slightly
enhanced moisture up to 1.15" in the surface to 850mb layer along
the leading edge of the convergence with about 3-5 degrees
increase in sfc Tds noted from Matagorda Bay toward Corpus Christi
(at or near 80F).  VWP shows solid 20-25kts at the 850-700mb
layers with some weak veering supporting that WAA and deeper layer
convergence to allow for efficient moisture loading.

RAP analysis suggests slightly higher unstable air along the coast
with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg (though SBCAPEs of 5000 J/kg show
further confirm that higher theta-E air). As such, as scattered
shallow cells grow in coverage/local intensity tapping that higher
vertical ascent, rates of 2-2.5"/hr once again remain possible.=20
Cell motions to the NNE will deflect slightly east in the 500-1000
thickness trough with propagation.  So residency over the coastal
plain should allow for some higher local totals again this
morning... 3-5" locally.  Given the consistency of this pattern,
even the sandier soils are near capacity in the shallow soil, with
NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm saturation ratios all over 70% across the
area of concern but over 75-85% northeast of Matagorda Bay to
Galveston Bay.  As such, rapid inundation/flash flooding becomes
likely as even 6hr FFG values are below 3" with even lower spots
about 1-1.5".

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-_xE4vQwWKsXOaWcIQKK-0JCrtAs_sGNuFEx8kJ7WT5WFC-un2zqb5DteiHYNeh5xwqk=
udbYDG9yRXxGUcdC0iwrgvM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29799571 29679527 29429501 29039509 28569586=20
            28309635 28229653 27829703 27359733 27549774=20
            28139775 28969740 29369704 29699650=20

=3D =3D =3D
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