Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 28 2024 01:00:52

ACUS01 KWNS 280100
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible tonight across
parts of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota, the central High
Plains, and central/northern Rockies.

....Parts of ND into northern MN...
Storms have struggled to mature thus far today across parts of
ND/MN. However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection remain in place across
parts of ND into northern MN this evening, as noted on the KBIS and
KINL 00Z soundings. Convective evolution through this evening
remains rather uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage is
expected with time later tonight from eastern ND into northwest MN,
in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet and a compact
shortwave trough that will move quickly eastward across parts of
southern SK/MB. The strongest storms could pose some threat of hail
and isolated damaging gusts, with a somewhat greater coverage of
damaging-wind threat possible if any upscale growth can evolve.

....Parts of the central/northern High Plains...
Scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening from parts of SD
into western NE and northeast CO, within a moderately unstable and
modestly sheared environment. Isolated strong/severe gusts and hail
may continue to be a threat with these storms through the evening,
before increasing MLCINH results in a general weakening trend later
tonight.

....Southeast ID/northeast UT into western WY...
A small cluster of strong storms across parts of northeast
UT/southeast ID may continue to pose a threat of isolated severe
gusts as it spreads eastward into southwest WY early this evening,
within a weakly unstable but favorably sheared environment. Gradual
weakening is expected later this evening due to increasing CINH with
time and eastward extent.

...Dean.. 07/28/2024

$$

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