Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 28 2024 00:09:21 AWUS01 KWNH 280009 FFGMPD NMZ000-AZZ000-280605- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0745 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 808 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...much of NM...southeast AZ Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 280005Z - 280605Z Summary...Localized instances of flash flooding will likely continue into the evening with isolated hourly accumulations of 1-2" (and as much as 1" in as little as 15-min). Discussion...Monsoonal convection is peaking across portions of the Southern Rockies and Southwest this afternoon, with the greatest coverage, highest intensity showers and thunderstorms concentrated in the vicinity of the Mogollon Mountains and adjacent lower elevation deserts (from southwest NM into southeast AZ). Convection is a bit more limited over the Mogollon Rim into central/northern NM, where instability and moisture are lower (and less anomolous). Over southern portions of the MPD area, the mesoscale environment is characterized by SB CAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg (with pockets of inhibition due to storms becoming outflow dominate), PWATs of 1.0-1.6 inches (near the max moving average, per TUS sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear near 20 kts. Farther north, SB CAPE ranges from 1000-1500 J/kg (with fewer pockets of inhibition), PWATs of 0.7-1.0 inches (near the 90th percentile, per ABQ sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 10-30 kts (higher farther north, in the vicinity of the right exit region of ~70 kt jet streak). Localized instances of flash flooding will likely continue for several more hours this evening, as outflow dominate convection with weak steering flow results in somewhat chaotic storm motions and propagation. While deep layer flow generally favors south to southeast storm motions (especially over eastern portions of the MPD), very weak low-level flow is resulting in upwind propagation vectors in nearly all direction (particularly over southeast AZ). These slow storm motions are resulting in hourly accumulations as high as 1-2", and as much as 1" of rain is occurring in as little as 15-min (per MRMS estimates). Convection should mostly come to an end over the next few hours in NM, but may continue for longer into southeast AZ (where environmental factors are the best). As usual, concerns are highest for sensitive burn scar areas, though urbanized terrain and normally dry washes could see localized flash flood impacts as well. Churchill ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7lZJhbzaDIdcr0-t54DifFquvUEj9OkN93FrOeZnsYoe2bd5mq_Pw-WFtiw3UcGuy9Ms= 5S_m-HZ7-ZFKwNvXVQP-RS4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36940474 36580388 34800380 33380540 32770741=20 31450805 31300912 31311085 31741233 32471210=20 33351118 34570952 35080797 36010645 36780586=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .