Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 27 2024 23:12:51

ACUS11 KWNS 272312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272312=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-280115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Dakota into far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 272312Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for thunderstorm development,
with a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A watch may eventually
be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...As of 2300Z, the KBIS/KMBX radars show increasing
surface convergence along a NNW/SSE-oriented cold front draped
across central North Dakota. Boundary-layer cumulus is also
expanding in coverage and deepening along the front, generally
along/south of I-94. Given a warm/moist and uncapped pre-convective
air mass, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected along the front in the next hour or so.=20

Steep midlevel lapse rates (associated with an EML) above the
warm/moist boundary layer are contributing to moderate surface-based
instability ahead of the front. This, combined with around 35 kt of
west-southwesterly effective shear (oriented oblique to the front),
will support a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete
supercells. Large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches) and locally
damaging wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will be possible (especially with
any initial semi-discrete supercells). With time, the damaging-wind
risk may increase if storms can grow locally upscale as they track
eastward.=20

There is still some uncertainty on overall storm coverage and
longevity (given fairly weak large-scale ascent and gradually
increasing nocturnal static stability). Trends are being monitored
for a possible watch issuance for parts of the area this evening.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/27/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5w1LQwXwNAJ1C1oupMjGqTrIfb4YKrOQwxus3M1K3iqrwZR2qVVM9RK9nqoTy5MONot_5hv2v=
TdlmVCbO5MsqClMlKU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48130053 48849985 49019944 49099864 49089708 48809676
            48239683 47429765 46629885 46349982 46260062 46340100
            46470118 46790122 47370094 48130053=20


=3D =3D =3D
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