Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 27 2024 18:06:15 AWUS01 KWNH 271806 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-280005- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0744 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Southern/Eastern AZ...Central and Western NM...Southern CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271805Z - 280005Z SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity will be developing over the next several hours as the diurnal heating cycle continues. Locally heavy rainfall amounts will foster localized concerns for flash flooding impacts. DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows strong diurnal heating taking place across large areas of the Southwest, with some early hints of CU development over some of the higher terrain including the Sangre De Cristo Range and the Sacramento Mountains. Gradually today there will be the development of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain of southern CO down through central NM. Meanwhile, areas of southern through eastern AZ and into western NM will also eventually see the development of scattered areas of convection. The higher and more anomalous PW environment today is situated across southern AZ where there is a bit better depth of moisture extending up through the mid and upper levels of the vertical column. This is depicted rather nicely in the CIRA-ALPW data, and the PWs here are running about 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Meanwhile, SBCAPE values are already on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg across southern AZ, with magnitudes of 1000 to 1500 J/kg seen over parts of eastern AZ into central NM. Strong diurnal heating and a corresponding increase in surface-based instability along with better defined differential heating boundaries in close proximity to the higher terrain will help facilitate convective initiation early this afternoon. This convection will then locally expand off the terrain into open desert locations through the late afternoon hours. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with today's monsoonal convection, with the latest hires model consensus generally favoring the Sangre De Cristo Range with one corridor of relatively heavier totals, and also areas of south-central to southeast AZ and western NM with another general axis of heavier amounts. Some rainfall rates with the storms may reach 1 to 2 inches/hour, with some spotty isolated storm totals of 2 to 3+ inches possible by late afternoon. These rains will favor a localized concern for flash flooding impacts which will again be largely relegated to the area burn scar locations and the normally dry washes. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4DC3ks0ISdEhGfHj93xq215Be74z9Rw2IN2WVWdxpiFTOf4_7BkK8NJnsLna-kQVpdAF= 3VviJI4TkWSDn4UbLnaM5rs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37790606 37710474 36830368 35260366 33520413=20 32520498 32350590 32640702 32290785 31580869=20 31240981 31311153 31951284 33151126 34771068=20 35460840 37190713=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .