Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 27 2024 07:55:37 AWUS01 KWNH 270755 FFGMPD TXZ000-271345- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0743 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Coast... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 270755Z - 271345Z SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building highly efficient tropical showers capable of 2-3"/hr rates and localized possible totals up 5", likely to result in localized flash flooding conditions through early daybreak. DISCUSSION...Another early morning outbreak of highly efficient tropical showers along the Texas coast given very slow moving larger scale forcing features. Today, the maturity of the mid-level trough is a bit broader and more wound up further north across the OK/KS/AR/MO corner with a trailing confluent/shear axis extending southward across NE TX toward a lower scale vorticity center in the southern part of the TX Triangle. This continues to support deep tropical moisture along the eastern side of the circulation with 2.25-2.5" total PWats centered at an area of return easterly trades rotating northward into the Western Gulf northward jet this morning. At the surface, the coastal ridge is a bit depressed compared to the last few days; though stronger convergence exists from Oso Bay toward Port Lavaca. SBCAPEs have increased to 2500-3000 J/kg at this convergence point. Given deeper layer convergence to enhance into a more south to north 850-700mb stream will support continuing stronger thunderstorms over the next few hours. Currently, a few deeper thunderstorms are starting to break out in those lower layer convergence axes from Refugio to Dewitt county.=20 Initially rates of 2"/hr should increase with some better flux toward 2.5 and occasional 3"/hr rates. Slow veering, should help to expand frictional convergence zone further north and east toward Galveston Bay eventually supporting similar thunderstorm development through early morning. Unidirectional flow of 15-20kts but with 15kts of inflow nearly in the opposite direction may allow for back-building redevelopment in proximity to the coastal area. As such, relative stationary to weakly slow northward repeating could result in spots of 3-5" in 1-3hrs.=20 Given recent heavy rainfall, this would result in rapid inundation/flash flooding. The only limiting factor may be best convergence setting up just offshore with greatest totals there as opposed to just onshore; but it remains too close to not be concerned within the MPD area over the=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-w9YGUH_PwMaoVlEWBPnNQ_BjyDTGcX2LWO7AP-xbYpDShgVH3_TJdp3PO0BSNh6-izZ= 80tQMtY97dcueOfDYnPz3tE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 29739682 29499585 29699490 29359468 29129496=20 28479608 28129659 27719692 27469711 27429745=20 27819750 28629753 29439736=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .