Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 27 2024 07:20:45 ACUS03 KWNS 270720 SWODY3 SPC AC 270719 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ....Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ....Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ...Bentley.. 07/27/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .