Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 19:02:07

AWUS01 KWNH 261855
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-270054-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0739
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...southern North Carolina, eastern South Carolina,
and coastal regions

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261854Z - 270054Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce 2-3
inch/hr rain rates in spots, locally exceeding areas FFG
thresholds.  Flash flooding remains possible for another 4-6 hours
or so.

Discussion...A slow-moving cluster of storms has persisted along
the NC/SC border region over the past 4-6 hours and is currently
near the Lumberton, NC area.  Storm motions with this cluster are
slow owing to weak wind fields aloft (generally less than 20 knots
from 500mb down to the surface).  Additionally, the storms remain
embedded in a very moist/unstable airmass, with 2.2 inch PW values
and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE continuing to support very efficient rainfall
rates eclipsing 2.5 inches/hr at times per MRMS.  Additional
thunderstorms were developing along and just inland from the coast
near a slowly advancing sea breeze boundary.  These storms were
also capable of 2+ inch/hr rain rates given slow movement and are
also setting up increasing potential for prolonged heavy rainfall
via cell mergers with the incoming convective cluster from the
west.  These rain rates are occurring in areas of 2 inch/hr FFG
thresholds, suggestive of at least an isolated flash flood risk in
the near term.

This flash flood risk will persist for as long as the Lumberton
convective cluster remains inland.  Slow eastward propagation of
this cluster will eventually enable it to reach the coastline in
the 00-02Z timeframe (extrapolating eastward motions at 20 kts).=20
Upstream stabilization behind the complex should result in a
decreasing heavy rainfall threat from west to east during that
timeframe.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7PG5ILd0b4nvMnVlcIPWE9pjQjZClg6JFyUMZsyJMUR9CEZNaDQrNXz9fauZLQfDq3qD=
YaIx3GJTrC-JYLwIQttZuiU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35397747 35137641 34507654 33697791 33127928=20
            33308028 34378063 34797990 35237872=20

=3D =3D =3D
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