Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 18:40:25

AWUS01 KWNH 261840
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-270039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...Central and Northern CO...Southeast WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261839Z - 270039Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon will promote an isolated threat for some areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are developing and
expanding in coverage across the CO High Country as a rather
well-defined shortwave trough ejects eastward across the terrain
and interacts with a moderately unstable airmass characterized by
MUCAPE values of 1000 J/kg. The airmass across the region is also
rather moist with PWs near 1.5 standard deviations above normal,
but also reflective of the broader monsoon pattern more regionally
that is in place.

A combination of orographics with differential heating boundaries
and the interaction of ejecting shortwave energy with the
thermodynamics will favor a further expansion of convection
throughout the afternoon. This will especially be the case across
central and northern CO, with some of the convection making it to
the Front Range of CO and also across southeast WY.

Some rainfall rates may reach 1 to 1.5 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and especially over central CO where somewhat
better pooling of monsoonal moisture will be focused. Some spotty
2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts will be possible by late afternoon,
and this may result in at least an isolated threat for flash
flooding. This will especially be the case over some of the more
rugged terrain and near burn scar locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8aN3ks3bKjtpYe1VN4OWbwImj-fE-oSWEYcBMWTQ0BGX66Jj9Xn-W5l7u1jaJrl-_O8U=
dQ9Li_yfwnp5NnRElkh8PX0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42570530 42270417 41290405 39880450 38400481=20
            37700480 38260592 38440722 38770739 39200721=20
            40020721 40750713 41380686 42020634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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