Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 18:11:55 AWUS01 KWNH 261811 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-270010- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 210 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern AZ...Southeast UT...Southern CO...Central and Western NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 261810Z - 270010Z SUMMARY...Scattered to broken coverage of heavy monsoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected today. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected to occur. This will include concerns for burn scar impacts and localized debris flow activity, along with dry wash/arroyo flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB in conjunction with visible imagery and the ML-driven LightningCast product suggests CI is imminent across areas of southern CO and northern NM including the Sangre De Cristo mountains. Additional areas of CI are imminent also across the higher terrain of eastern AZ. In all of these areas, there is close proximity to some weak MCV energy, and this coupled with the proximity of multiple differential heating boundaries will allow for the rapid development and expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity over the next several hours. SBCAPE values with the strong diurnal heating cycle have already risen to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg across northern NM, with areas of eastern and southern AZ seeing values upwards locally of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This instability should further increase, and with a seasonably moisture-rich column, the monsoonal convection this afternoon will be capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Relatively slow cell-motions and terrain-focused/orographically enhanced convection may foster some storm totals of 2 to 4 inches by late this afternoon. The 12Z HREF guidance shows a rather widespread threat of scattered to broken coverage of convection, and thus there will tend to be a regional threat for areas of flash flooding. The higher terrain will be the area of heaviest rainfall potential, and as is common with heavy monsoonal convection, the area burn scar locations and normally dry wash/arroyos will be most susceptible to seeing flash flooding impacts including possible debris flow activity. Given the expected rainfall rates/totals today, some locally significant impacts may occur. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81804lbu51r0NsZ6qB69UMA24hhON0G_Fjo7VgZDeMj1iZgr8uC4XFO6DdrdHlJ7TzWp= 1C21yUPPf2gtnGO-iSMf5ns$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38300665 38160576 37650493 36670442 35170431=20 33410481 32620565 32490689 32230780 31780841=20 31290949 31491174 32911235 34341243 35261217=20 35611169 35791090 36441022 37270978 38020876=20 38280767=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .