Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 17:23:56

AWUS01 KWNH 261723
FFGMPD
TXZ000-262321-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...Portions of South-Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261721Z - 262321Z

SUMMARY...Some isolated pockets of flash flooding possible with
slow-moving thunderstorms going through the early evening hours
across south-central to southeast TX.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery in
conjunction with radar imagery continues to show broken areas of
heavy rainfall associated with rather slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms across portions of south-central to southeast TX.
All of this activity continues to be oriented along a low to
mid-level trough axis with multiple vort centers noted along it in
a southwest to northeast fashion.

Much of the coastal region of southeast TX has stabilized with the
widespread morning convection, but areas farther back to the west
and in closer proximity to a wave of low pressure, there is
stronger instability in place with MLCAPE values of as much as
1000 to 1500 J/kg. More notable boundary layer heating over the
next few hours will tend to further destabilize this region, and
with low-level moisture convergence aligned near the surface
trough/low center, there will likely be some additional uptick in
the coverage of convection going through the afternoon hours. Some
right-entrance region upper jet dynamics overhead will also be a
facilitator of the convective threat.

Some of the additional convective clusters will be capable of
producing some 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, and with concerns
over slow cell-motions, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4
inches may be possible. This coupled with locally sensitive
antecedent conditions will support a threat for at least isolated
areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-HkSVl8kohmaX4gUfLQeixQDz3zsIZmRSiFBriq03QdbqBTM0M0y461wvcUJ8zIYE7IW=
lRIiGnUkXyQ_UwtclJLSRj0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30809640 30709590 30299584 29719614 28819714=20
            28449818 28649875 29239870 29889754 30169717=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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