Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 06:02:57

AWUS01 KWNH 260602
FFGMPD
TXZ000-261100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0731
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260600Z - 261100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage and potential for
training/back-building in deep moisture axis. Scattered flash
flooding may be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a downstream anticyclonically
curved cirrus pattern indicative of broader upper-level right
entrance region aiding ascent and cyclonic development across the
Sabine River Region.  SWIR 3.9um loop notes the mid-level wave
continues to elongate and slide northeast through this ascent
region; while pulling isentropic/slant-wise ascent through the
furthest extent of the jet's influence.  VWP and surface winds
suggest east-southeast flow reaches the coast near Galveston Bay
and turns/convergence into a more southerly isentropic lift.=20
Higher theta-E air is transported through this
confluence/convergence axis for shallow/slanted convection across
SE TX from Liberty to Angelina county (well into/above stable air
mass in the Piney Woods region).  High Tds in the upper 70s and
narrow skinny/nearly saturated profiles support total PWats over
2.25" the 850-700mb confluence axis parallel to the 5H elongated
shear axis/trough between the polar and subtropical return
streams.=20

Instability has been lacking due to nearly moist adiabatic lapse
rates, but the early morning warm Gulf release of near sea-surface
heat/moisture combined with sfc to boundary layer convergence and
favorable slant-wise ascent channel are expected to proliferate
convective elevated convective coverage over the next few hours
before capping along the frictional convergence zone nearer the
coast erodes toward/just prior to daybreak.  Still ample moisture
even shallow/slanted convection have warm cloud rainfall
generation processes to support 1.5-2"/hr rates, perhaps up to
2.5" if elements align for short periods for greater vertical
ascent.  Still, given the steering/convergent low level pattern
training/back-building of even the lighter rates may allow for
spots of 2-4" totals across areas that have recently seen above
average rainfall and lowered FFG.  So in the near-term, and few
incidents of flash flooding may be possible; though Hi-res CAM
guidance signals increase after 12z.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_2y83h8BJ_9c-LTlSrPIoT3Cd7VcYGfpwue3M7lZE5BhBGGtWKYp77GhdQ61ZgOQna1U=
PDRGO2oXw8mf8SRyUeCzpf4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31899480 31889405 31319371 30469397 29969439=20
            29349521 29219604 29629653 30529616 31419535=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.