Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 01:12:54

AWUS01 KWNH 260112
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-260411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0730
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
911 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...eastern Georgia through central South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260111Z - 260411Z

Summary...Well organized clusters of thunderstorms are migrating
toward locally sensitive ground conditions across the discussion
area (particularly along the I-20 corridor).  A localized, yet
appreciable flash flood threat may emerge from this activity
through 03Z.

Discussion...Well organized clusters of strong convection continue
to propagate east-southeastward across the discussion area.=20
Additionally, local cell mergers have prolonged and enhanced
rainfall rates on a localized basis, with estimates of 1-3 inch/hr
rates noted per MRMS.  These rates are not surprising given 2-2.4
inch PW values immediately downstream of the persistent clusters
along with slow overall cell movement.

On their east-southeastward track, these cells are expected to
impact the I-20 corridor from Columbia to Augusta through 03Z.=20
These areas are relatively sensitive to excessive rainfall, with
FFG thresholds generally less than 1.5 inch/hr along the corridor
(locally lower in the urban/populated areas).  Should this
convection hold together and continue producing excessive
rainfall, a locally significant flash flood threat could unfold.=20
The organized nature of the cells and lingering areas of 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE immediately downstream of the convection suggests fairly
strong potential for heavier rainfall to reach sensitive areas
across the discussion area through 03Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9YMOJerTX7epAM5l7vWSVRu95tfWMdKiSalsGPXzV3_xSlRpTEKEOgx_Klw2gMp6Zl0U=
r5PQhvHfkIp-fqH6FUeD5oY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34838057 34427952 33618009 33008154 32898236=20
            33278300 33728284 34488171=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.