Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 26 2024 00:42:36

ACUS01 KWNS 260042
SWODY1
SPC AC 260041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity developing across parts of the Intermountain
West and Rockies vicinity may pose a risk for strong to locally
severe wind gusts into this evening.

....01Z Update...

....Central/Northeast Montana...
Modest pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture has only become
supportive of weak CAPE, but forcing for ascent downstream of
mid-level troughing crossing the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies has
been sufficient to contribute to a broken line of thunderstorms
approaching the Glasgow/Jordan vicinities.  Although this activity
does not appear particularly vigorous, evaporative cooling of
precipitation within the hot and deeply mixed sub-cloud layer,
coupled with downward mixing of modest westerly ambient mid-level
flow, may still contribute to a few strong to severe wind gusts
until convection dissipates later this evening.

....Arizona...
A number of storms have developed near the Mogollon Rim vicinity.
While there has been little indication of appreciable upscale
growth, a number of outflows generated by this activity are surging
toward the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations
around the Greater Phoenix area, aided by light northerly to
east-northeasterly mid/upper flow.  Even with 50-60 degree surface
temperature-dew point spreads, there appears sufficient instability
to support renewed thunderstorm development posing a risk for
additional locally strong downbursts through mid to late evening.

...Kerr.. 07/26/2024

$$

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