Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 25 2024 23:57:23

AWUS01 KWNH 252357
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-260556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0729
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Areas affected...much of Arizona, southern Utah, western/central
New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252356Z - 260556Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to drift slowly while
producing local 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the discussion
area.  These rates are expected to produce flash flooding in a few
areas while persisting through 05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has materialized across much of the
discussion area through the early afternoon.  Spots of 1-1.5
inch/hr rain rates have been observed and estimated per MRMS.=20
Additionally, cells have began to propagate and demonstrate modest
upscale growth into forward-propagating clusters especially across
Arizona.  Wind fields are weak, but widespread areas of 1+ inch PW
values will continue to support locally heavy rainfall that
promote excessive runoff - especially in low-lying spots and near
burn scars.

Much of the convection across the discussion area will be
diurnally driven, with coverage decreasing after sunset.  A few
areas will still have heavy rainfall potential through the
overnight hours, however - especially with local linear segments
and clusters that can continue to maintain strong updrafts near
mature cold pools.  Another area of concern resides across
central/southern Arizona, where 1.5+ inch PW values and higher
instability values (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will likely promote
stronger updrafts and locally heavy rain rates into the overnight
hours.  2 inch/hr rain rates cannot be ruled out in these areas
(potentially doubling or tripling FFG thresholds across the
region).

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4LQ8JhHf0bp1Uql_S_Xs_DSeIpdrqHRnYivIgwyTAqZQeqKSky_NQccEtedqsdLruWhy=
rwkgmfuNKol41yvEWFea6Os$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39581036 39000877 38020818 36930757 35790641=20
            35080609 34570626 34340678 34490790 34320889=20
            33560883 32770918 32001012 31331140 32341441=20
            33471456 34931424 36951398 38691361 39441210=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.